Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Reserves – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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